Botafogo – Santos

Model: TIPPSH

Botafogo vs Santos

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.25
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 17, 2026 2:30 AM
ResultWIN2 - 1
StartStarted 6h 56m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 9h 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Botafogo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Botafogo

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

36/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.11First seen
Current2.25Now
Max odds2.25Highest point
Min odds2.11Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BotafogoHOME
VS
SantosAWAY
WLWDW
Recent form
LWWWL
Avg goals scored
2.00
2.40
Defensive weakness
1.00
1.20
Shots on target for
8.20
6.80
SoT conceded pressure
4.80
6.40
Home splitW-W-W-L-W2.20 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-D-D1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.25. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie A (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.25
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Botafogo is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -21.6% 7D: -4.8% 15D: 10.3% 30D: 14.7%
Model insight

Botafogo – Santos Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample178
Win Rate43.8%
Profit-9.74u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSSpartans - Stirling2.252.49%
WINEPS - P-Iirot2.473.15%
WINVikingur Reykjavik - Gyori ETO2.473.15%
WINBFA Vilnius - FK Ekranas2.253.15%
LOSSNautico - EC Juventude2.273.15%
WINClub Atletico Temperley - Tristan Suarez2.412.49%
LOSSDenver Summit FC (W) - Kansas City Current (W)2.472.49%
WINFK Jelgava - SC Grobinas2.053.37%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
North Sunshine Eagles - Eltham Redbacks12.462.49%18 Jul 07:00
Denver Summit FC (W) - Portland Thorns (W)12.443.15%18 Jul 20:00
Pick
1 @ 2.25
Kickoff
Lug 17, 2026 2:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 6h 56m ago
Updated
Updated 9h 6m ago
Torna in alto