Model: TipTromba12H

VfB Homberg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf II

PREDICTION

@ 9.50

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 19, 2026 5:00 PM

ResultLOSS3 - 3

StartStarted 45d 10h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.41% · n=38

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 46d 7h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is VfB Homberg. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: VfB HombergGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

52/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

VfB HombergHOME

Fortuna Dusseldorf IIAWAY

DLLWL

Recent form

DWDDL

Avg goals scored

2.00

2.20

Defensive weakness

2.60

1.80

Shots on target for

4.00

7.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

3.50

Home splitD-L-W-L-W2.60 scored / 2.20 conceded

Away splitD-W-D-L-W2.20 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 9.50. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.41% based on n=38 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd9.50

V2 BandLOWROI 1.41% · n=38

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 34.1% 7D: 13.7% 15D: 12.1% 30D: 18.9%

Model insight

VfB Homberg – Fortuna Dusseldorf II Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 9.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba12H model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.41% across 38 similar predictions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample18

Win Rate11.1%

Profit+1.00u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	At. Pueblonuevo - CD Badajoz	9.50	1.41%
LOSS	Frigg - Kjelsås	9.50	1.41%
LOSS	Verdes FC - CSD Municipal	9.50	1.41%
LOSS	Craigavon City (W) - Bangor FC (W)	9.50	1.41%
LOSS	Cleveland Force - Steel City	9.50	1.41%
LOSS	FC Rapperswil-Jona - Basel	9.50	1.41%
WIN	AIK (W) - BK Hacken (W)	9.50	1.41%
WIN	Flamengo de Sucre - Nacional Sucre	9.50	1.41%

Pick

1 @ 9.50

Kickoff

Lug 19, 2026 5:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.41% • n=38

Start

Started 45d 10h ago

Updated

Updated 46d 7h ago