Model: TIPPSH

Flamengo SP U23 vs Matonense U23

PREDICTION

@ 1.78

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 18, 2026 10:00 PM

ResultWIN3 - 1

StartStarted 46d 4h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 46d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Flamengo SP U23. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Flamengo SP U23Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

25/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.70First seen

Current1.78Now

Max odds1.78Highest point

Min odds1.70Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Flamengo SP U23HOME

Matonense U23AWAY

WWWDW

Recent form

LLDWW

Avg goals scored

1.40

0.80

Defensive weakness

0.40

1.00

Shots on target for

4.80

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

2.20

5.00

Home splitW-W-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-W-W-W-W4.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.78. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Paulista Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.78

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Flamengo SP U23 has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 33.7% 7D: 17.4% 15D: 14.2% 30D: 20.0%

Model insight

Flamengo SP U23 – Matonense U23 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.78. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample608

Win Rate50.0%

Profit-37.03u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Yaracuyanos - Urena SC	2.01	1.31%
WIN	Atletico El Vigia - Atletico Barinas	2.03	1.04%
LOSS	Baltika Kaliningrad - Krylia Sovetov	1.86	1.04%
WIN	Slovacko II - SFK Vrchovina	1.88	1.04%
LOSS	HNK Rijeka U19 - Kustosija U19	1.88	1.04%
LOSS	Campobasso - Scafatese	1.97	1.04%
LOSS	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	2.00	1.31%
WIN	Torque - Danubio	2.01	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.78

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 10:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 46d 4h ago

Updated

Updated 46d 6h ago