Tondela vs Academica
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Tondela. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: TondelaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.070 | A: 0.252Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.90. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.
Tondela – Academica Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Pena Sport - Mutilvera | 1.86 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Scolar Resita - Petrolul Ploiesti | 2.05 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | Wealdstone - Wolverhampton U21 | 1.79 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Hapoel Kfar Shalem - SC Kfar Qasim | 1.80 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Hapoel Rishon Lezion - Hapoel Kfar Saba | 2.14 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Halifax - Derby U21 | 1.85 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Pachuca U21 - Puebla U21 | 2.15 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Scunthorpe - Stoke U21 | 1.78 | 1.04% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves | 1 | 1.99 | 1.31% | 05 Jul 16:00 |
| Istra 1961 - Slaven Belupo | 1 | 1.97 | 1.04% | 15 Aug 18:30 |
| NK Osijek - NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1.98 | 1.31% | 15 Aug 21:00 |
| FC Cincinnati - New York City FC | 1 | 2.04 | 1.04% | 20 Aug 01:30 |
| Real Salt Lake - FC Dallas | 1 | 1.90 | 1.31% | 20 Aug 03:30 |
| Portland Timbers - San Diego FC | 1 | 2.09 | 1.04% | 20 Aug 04:30 |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC - Larne FC | 1 | 2.00 | 1.04% | 20 Aug 18:00 |
| Concarneau - Villefranche | 1 | 1.93 | 1.04% | 20 Aug 20:45 |