Barra Mansa – Buzios

Model: TipA1

Barra Mansa vs Buzios

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 23, 2026 9:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 1d
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.27% · n=211
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 3m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Buzios. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BuziosGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.054 | A: 0.143

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

50/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.00First seen
Current4.23Now
Max odds4.23Highest point
Min odds4.00Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Barra MansaHOME
VS
BuziosAWAY
LDDDW
Recent form
WDDWW
Avg goals scored
1.00
2.60
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.40
Shots on target for
3.00
7.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.40
Home splitD-D-W-L1.25 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-D3.25 scored / 0.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.27% based on n=211 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Carioca C (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.27% · n=211
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Buzios's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 8.3% 7D: 28.7% 15D: 20.8% 30D: 21.4%
Model insight

Barra Mansa – Buzios Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.27% across 211 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample42
Win Rate31.0%
Profit+9.30u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSNaestved - FC Helsingor3.752.27%
LOSSLASK Linz - Fortuna Dusseldorf3.902.27%
LOSSBrisbane Olympic FC (W) - Gold Coast United (W)4.002.27%
LOSSIpswich FC - North Star4.204.73%
LOSSMarine - Colwyn Bay3.752.27%
LOSSClermont Foot - US Orleans 454.002.27%
WINUniversitatea Cluj - Nyiregyhaza Spartacus3.752.27%
WINPoxyt - MPS4.204.37%
Pick
2 @ 4.00
Kickoff
Lug 23, 2026 9:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.27% • n=211
Start
Starts in 1d
Updated
Updated 3m ago
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