Model: TipA1

Carlton Town vs Matlock Town

PREDICTION

@ 2.38

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 25, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 4

StartStarted 18h 27m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.02% · n=648

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Matlock Town. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Matlock TownGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: -0.227

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

33/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.38First seen

Current2.40Now

Max odds2.40Highest point

Min odds2.38Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Carlton TownHOME

Matlock TownAWAY

LDD

Recent form

WDLL

Avg goals scored

0.67

1.75

Defensive weakness

1.67

1.75

Shots on target for

4.00

5.33

SoT conceded pressure

7.50

2.67

Home splitL-D0.50 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitW4.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.38. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.02% based on n=648 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.38

V2 BandLOWROI 1.02% · n=648

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Matlock Town. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Matlock Town's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -3.5% 7D: 26.2% 15D: 15.8% 30D: 22.0%

Model insight

Carlton Town – Matlock Town Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.02% across 648 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample102

Win Rate38.2%

Profit-8.06u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	FC Lustenau - FC Kitzbuhel	2.25	1.02%
LOSS	North Texas SC - Los Angeles FC II	2.63	1.02%
WIN	MFK Ruzomberok - FK Teplice	2.50	1.02%
LOSS	FK Kyzylzhar - Tobol Kostanay	2.25	1.02%
WIN	Al Ahed - Al Nejmeh	2.50	1.02%
WIN	Wyvern FC - Kariya	2.50	1.02%
LOSS	Deportivo Moquegua - Deportivo Garcilaso	2.55	1.02%
LOSS	St George City FA U20 - University NSW U20	2.60	1.02%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Patriotas FC - Internacional FC de Palmira	2	2.63	1.02%	26 Jul 23:00
Floresta EC - Maringa FC	2	2.60	1.02%	28 Jul 01:00

Pick

2 @ 2.38

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.02% • n=648

Start

Started 18h 27m ago

Updated

Updated 1d 8h ago