Model: TipA1

FK Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay

PREDICTION

@ 2.25

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 18, 2026 5:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 1d 2h

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.02% · n=648

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 5m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tobol Kostanay. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Tobol Kostanay

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

31/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.34First seen

Current2.33Now

Max odds2.34Highest point

Min odds2.33Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FK KyzylzharHOME

Tobol KostanayAWAY

LLLLL

Recent form

WLWLW

Avg goals scored

0.40

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.40

1.00

Shots on target for

3.60

6.00

SoT conceded pressure

8.40

5.00

Home splitL-L-W-L-L1.20 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitL-L-D-L-D0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.25. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.02% based on n=648 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Kazakhstan Premier League (kz). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.25

V2 BandLOWROI 1.02% · n=648

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Tobol Kostanay has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 58.2% 7D: 7.1% 15D: 7.2% 30D: 19.6%

Model insight

FK Kyzylzhar – Tobol Kostanay Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.02% across 648 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample77

Win Rate42.9%

Profit+0.36u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Al Ahed - Al Nejmeh	2.50	1.02%
WIN	NK Aluminij - Sheriff Tiraspol	2.00	1.03%
WIN	Wyvern FC - Kariya	2.50	1.02%
WIN	Heidelberg United (W) - Alamein FC (W)	2.25	1.02%
LOSS	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki - AS Trencin	2.40	1.02%
WIN	Universitatea Cluj - Vojvodina	2.40	1.02%
WIN	CD Rengo Unido - Colchagua CD	2.00	1.03%
LOSS	Futuro FC - Chimbarongo FC	2.35	1.02%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
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Nippon Steel Oita - Brew Saga	2	2.00	1.03%	18 Jul 11:00
MFK Ruzomberok - FK Teplice	2	2.50	1.02%	18 Jul 11:00

Pick

2 @ 2.25

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 5:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.02% • n=648

Start

Starts in 1d 2h

Updated

Updated 5m ago