Model: TIPPSH

CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci

PREDICTION

@ 1.90

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 25, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 0

StartStarted 16h 25m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 19h 59m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is CD Universidad San Martin. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CD Universidad San MartinGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.062 | A: 0.161

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

35/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.17First seen

Current2.14Now

Max odds2.17Highest point

Min odds2.14Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CD Universidad San MartinHOME

Carlos ManucciAWAY

WLLDW

Recent form

LWDWW

Avg goals scored

2.60

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.20

Shots on target for

5.80

4.00

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

6.00

Home splitW-D-L-L1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-W-L1.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Peru Liga 2 (pe). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.90

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. CD Universidad San Martin is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 5.3% 7D: 18.7% 15D: 13.9% 30D: 21.8%

Model insight

CD Universidad San Martin – Carlos Manucci Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.90. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample319

Win Rate50.8%

Profit-6.16u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Ponte Preta U20 - Uniao Suzano AC U20	1.81	3.37%
WIN	Queen's Park - Queen of South	2.01	3.37%
LOSS	Phoenix Rising FC - Hartford Athletic	2.09	3.37%
WIN	CS Corvinul Hunedoara - FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	2.05	3.37%
LOSS	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna - Otelul Galati	2.10	3.37%
LOSS	Braga - Celta Vigo	2.03	3.37%
WIN	Detroit City FC - Indy Eleven	1.76	3.37%
LOSS	Gold Coast Knights - Wynnum Wolves	1.79	3.37%

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Pick

1 @ 1.90

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

3.37% • n=795

Start

Started 16h 25m ago

Updated

Updated 19h 59m ago