Ajax vs Burnley
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Ajax. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: AjaxGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.045 | A: —Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Elite Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Ajax a useful statistical edge. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Ajax has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Ajax – Burnley Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Feyenoord - Rayo Vallecano | 2.08 | 3.37% |
| WIN | CD Universidad San Martin - Carlos Manucci | 2.10 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | MMU - UITM Perlis | 2.26 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Green Gully U23 - Dandenong City U23 | 2.22 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Ponte Preta U20 - Uniao Suzano AC U20 | 1.81 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Queen's Park - Queen of South | 2.01 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Ljungskile - Sandvikens IF | 1.94 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Phoenix Rising FC - Hartford Athletic | 2.09 | 3.37% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1 | 1.98 | 4.86% | 09 May 13:00 |
| FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina | 1 | 1.93 | 2.30% | 10 May 19:00 |