Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Septemvri Sofia

Model: TIPPSA

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia

PREDICTION
2
@ 5.36
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 26, 2026 10:15 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 3h 22m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.91% · n=35
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5h 29m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Septemvri Sofia. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Septemvri SofiaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.067 | A: -0.094

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

65/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.25First seen
Current5.36Now
Max odds5.40Highest point
Min odds4.63Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Lokomotiv PlovdivHOME
VS
Septemvri SofiaAWAY
WLWWD
Recent form
LDLWW
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.40
Defensive weakness
0.40
1.00
Shots on target for
3.60
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.20
2.80
Home splitW-W-W-W-D1.80 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-D-L0.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 5.36. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.91% based on n=35 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bulgaria First League (bg). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd5.36
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.91% · n=35
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -18.3% 7D: 0.9% 15D: 9.0% 30D: 19.9%
Model insight

Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Septemvri Sofia Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 5.36. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.91% across 35 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample2
Win Rate0.0%
Profit-2.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFCSB - FC Arges Pitesti5.173.75%
LOSSMan Utd (W) - Brighton (W)5.604.55%
Pick
2 @ 5.36
Kickoff
Lug 26, 2026 10:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.91% • n=35
Start
Started 3h 22m ago
Updated
Updated 5h 29m ago
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