Ajax – Burnley

Model: TIPPSH

Ajax vs Burnley

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.05
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 26, 2026 4:00 PM
ResultWIN2 - 1
StartStarted 1d ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ajax. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AjaxGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.045 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.18First seen
Current2.10Now
Max odds2.30Highest point
Min odds2.10Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AjaxHOME
VS
BurnleyAWAY
WWWDW
Recent form
LLDLD
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.00
Defensive weakness
0.60
2.20
Shots on target for
7.20
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
5.20
Home splitW-W-D-W-L1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-L-L0.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Elite Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.05
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Ajax's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -18.3% 7D: 0.9% 15D: 9.0% 30D: 19.9%
Model insight

Ajax – Burnley Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.05. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample343
Win Rate48.1%
Profit-13.41u
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Pick
1 @ 2.05
Kickoff
Lug 26, 2026 4:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Started 1d ago
Updated
Updated 1d 3h ago
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