Model: TIPPSA

Gremio vs Fluminense

PREDICTION

@ 2.27

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 27, 2026 1:30 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2h 3m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fluminense. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FluminenseGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.017 | A: 0.070

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

40/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.67First seen

Current2.35Now

Max odds2.69Highest point

Min odds2.35Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GremioHOME

FluminenseAWAY

LLWLW

Recent form

DWWDW

Avg goals scored

1.80

2.60

Defensive weakness

1.80

0.80

Shots on target for

5.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.60

2.60

Home splitL-L-D-W-W1.80 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitD-L-D-L-L0.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.27. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.43% based on n=79 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie A (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.27

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Fluminense. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -15.8% 7D: -3.2% 15D: 9.8% 30D: 21.9%

Model insight

Gremio – Fluminense Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.27. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.43% and 3.43%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample157

Win Rate42.0%

Profit-7.50u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Sol de Mayo - Club Villa Mitre	2.15	2.63%
LOSS	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	2.47	3.59%
LOSS	Altona City - Whittlesea United	2.02	2.63%
WIN	Cobh Ramblers - Bray Wanderers	2.27	3.43%
LOSS	Austin FC - Seattle Sounders	2.30	3.43%
WIN	Shanghai Segenda - Shandong Taishan Reserves	2.13	2.63%
WIN	Lipno Steszew - Unia Swarzedz	2.44	4.13%
WIN	Craigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)	2.34	3.43%

Pick

2 @ 2.27

Kickoff

Lug 27, 2026 1:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.43% • n=79

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

3.43% • n=79

Start

Starts in 2h 3m

Updated

Updated 10m ago