Model: TipTromba5H

Sambenedettese vs Avellino

PREDICTION

@ 4.50

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 26, 2026 10:30 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 5

StartStarted 2h 6m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.52% · n=105

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.52% · n=105

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 7h 38m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sambenedettese. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: SambenedetteseGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: -0.028

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Balanced

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

50/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds5.00First seen

Current5.50Now

Max odds5.50Highest point

Min odds5.00Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SambenedetteseHOME

AvellinoAWAY

LWWD

Recent form

WWLWL

Avg goals scored

1.25

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.00

Shots on target for

5.25

5.40

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

2.60

Home splitL-W-D0.67 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-W-L1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.50. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.52% based on n=105 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.50

V2 BandLOWROI 1.52% · n=105

V4 BandLOWROI 1.52% · n=105

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Sambenedettese. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -15.8% 7D: -3.2% 15D: 9.8% 30D: 21.5%

Model insight

Sambenedettese – Avellino Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.52% and 1.52%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample10

Win Rate50.0%

Profit+12.50u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Brisbane Knights - Grange Thistle	4.50	1.52%
LOSS	Vilavelhense - Vitoria ES	4.50	1.52%
WIN	SC Grobinas - FK Liepaja	4.50	1.52%
LOSS	Barcelona SP U23 - Manthiqueira U23	4.50	1.52%
WIN	HB Torshavn II - FC Suduroy	4.50	1.52%
WIN	Cambodia - Hong Kong	4.50	1.52%
WIN	Deportivo Liniers - Villa Dalmine	4.50	1.52%
LOSS	Swidniczanka Swidnik - Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4.50	1.52%

Pick

1 @ 4.50

Kickoff

Lug 26, 2026 10:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.52% • n=105

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.52% • n=105

Start

Started 2h 6m ago

Updated

Updated 7h 38m ago