Connah’s Quay – Caernarfon Town

Model: TIPPSH

Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.71
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 02, 2026 5:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 2
StartStarted 1d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Connah's Quay. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Connah's QuayGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

41/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.35First seen
Current2.50Now
Max odds2.50Highest point
Min odds2.15Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Connah's QuayHOME
VS
Caernarfon TownAWAY
LLDWD
Recent form
WLLWW
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.20
2.40
Shots on target for
3.00
3.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
4.00
Home splitL-D-D0.67 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-L-W-W1.50 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.71. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.71
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 28.0% 7D: 3.9% 15D: 10.5% 30D: 8.7%
Model insight

Connah’s Quay – Caernarfon Town Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.71. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample55
Win Rate40.0%
Profit+2.60u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSLaholms FK - FC Trollhättan2.884.53%
WINKerry FC - Cobh Ramblers2.472.49%
LOSSHuntsville City - Crown Legacy2.834.53%
LOSSEstudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield2.663.15%
LOSSIndependiente FBC - Deportivo Capiata2.764.53%
LOSSMSK Zilina B - FC Petrzalka2.622.49%
WINDag & Red - Buxton2.542.49%
WINAmerica MG - Goias2.542.49%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
HB Torshavn - NSI Runavik12.552.49%03 Aug 19:30
Velez Sarsfield - CA Independiente12.492.49%04 Aug 00:00
Pick
1 @ 2.71
Kickoff
Ago 02, 2026 5:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 1d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 4h ago
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