Dag & Red – Buxton

Model: TIPPSH

Dag & Red vs Buxton

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.54
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 25, 2026 6:00 PM
ResultWIN4 - 0
StartStarted 18h 33m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20h 35m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Dag & Red. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Dag & RedGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.080 | A: 0.054

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

39/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.00First seen
Current2.54Now
Max odds2.54Highest point
Min odds2.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Dag & RedHOME
VS
BuxtonAWAY
WWWWW
Recent form
LWWLL
Avg goals scored
3.60
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.20
1.60
Shots on target for
7.00
8.00
SoT conceded pressure
2.20
3.00
Home splitW-W-W-D-D3.40 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-D-W1.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.54. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.54
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 14.4% 7D: 24.1% 15D: 16.5% 30D: 22.2%
Model insight

Dag & Red – Buxton Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.54. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample68
Win Rate44.1%
Profit+6.59u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSGirona - CD Alaves2.452.49%
LOSSSV Wienerberg - SC Wiener Viktoria2.754.53%
LOSSChester - Stoke U212.363.15%
WINCrusaders - Glenavon2.412.49%
LOSSLucerne - FC Thun2.312.49%
LOSSHammarby - Anderlecht2.492.49%
LOSSDynamo Kiev - PAOK Salonika2.542.49%
WINBelgrano - Rosario Central2.522.49%
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Pick
1 @ 2.54
Kickoff
Lug 25, 2026 6:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 18h 33m ago
Updated
Updated 20h 35m ago
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