Independiente Santa Fe – Once Caldas

Model: TIPPSA

Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.61
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 03, 2026 5:00 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 8h 18m
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.79% · n=75
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1h 43m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Once Caldas. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Once CaldasGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.141 | A: 0.178

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.58First seen
Current3.80Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.58Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Independiente Santa FeHOME
VS
Once CaldasAWAY
WLWWD
Recent form
WWWDL
Avg goals scored
1.40
2.60
Defensive weakness
0.40
0.80
Shots on target for
3.00
6.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.40
4.00
Home splitW-W-D-W-D2.00 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitW-D-D-D1.75 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.61. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.79% based on n=75 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Colombia Primera A (co). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.61
V2 BandNONEROI -0.79% · n=75
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market prices Once Caldas as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Once Caldas has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 65.7% 7D: 14.7% 15D: 8.9% 30D: 9.3%
Model insight

Independiente Santa Fe – Once Caldas Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.61. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.79% across 75 similar predictions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample9
Win Rate22.2%
Profit-1.51u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSReal Sociedad - Racing Santander3.50-1.31%
LOSSSacramento Republic - Rhode Island FC3.50-1.31%
LOSSTianjin Shengde (W) - Chongqing Olympic (W)3.43-0.79%
LOSSArmenia - Kazakhstan3.70-1.31%
LOSSHerediano - Cartagines3.48-1.78%
WINBraga B - AD Sanjoanense3.78-1.79%
LOSSBrusque - Caxias RS3.75-1.79%
Pick
2 @ 3.61
Kickoff
Ago 03, 2026 5:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.79% • n=75
Start
Starts in 8h 18m
Updated
Updated 1h 43m ago
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