AFC Wimbledon – Newport County

Model: TIPPSA

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 08, 2026 6:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 14h 17m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.92% · n=146
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 16h 19m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Newport County. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Newport CountyGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.040 | A: -0.268

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.75First seen
Current4.50Now
Max odds4.75Highest point
Min odds4.50Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AFC WimbledonHOME
VS
Newport CountyAWAY
DLLWD
Recent form
DLLLW
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.00
2.20
Shots on target for
3.40
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
3.60
Home splitD-L-W-D-L1.00 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitD-L-W-W-W2.40 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.10. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.92% based on n=146 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England EFL Cup (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.10
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.92% · n=146
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Newport County's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 17.0% 7D: 16.7% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 11.0%
Model insight

AFC Wimbledon – Newport County Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.92% across 146 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample13
Win Rate15.4%
Profit-4.93u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINOsasuna - Al Ain SCC4.102.78%
LOSSCSD Municipal - Cartagines3.852.78%
LOSSCD Los Chankas - Sport Boys4.073.92%
LOSSSarpsborg 08 U19 - KFUM U193.893.99%
LOSSVaxjo (W) - IK Uppsala (W)4.173.92%
LOSSUSA - Paraguay3.973.92%
LOSSAskoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC4.042.78%
LOSSJunior - Independiente Santa Fe4.103.92%
Pick
2 @ 4.10
Kickoff
Ago 08, 2026 6:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.92% • n=146
Start
Started 14h 17m ago
Updated
Updated 16h 19m ago
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