Haverfordwest County – Penybont

Model: TipTromba35H

Haverfordwest County vs Penybont

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.20
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 14, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 23h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 8m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Haverfordwest County. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Haverfordwest CountyGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.132 | A: -0.006

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

50/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.05First seen
Current3.20Now
Max odds3.20Highest point
Min odds3.05Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Haverfordwest CountyHOME
VS
PenybontAWAY
LLWWL
Recent form
WDLLW
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.00
Shots on target for
5.20
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
8.00
3.60
Home splitL-W-L-W3.50 scored / 1.25 conceded
Away splitW-L-D-L0.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.20. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.85% based on n=519 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.20
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market prices Haverfordwest County as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Haverfordwest County's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -15.4% 7D: 13.4% 15D: 11.7% 30D: 11.1%
Model insight

Haverfordwest County – Penybont Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.20. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.85% across 519 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample236
Win Rate31.4%
Profit+0.06u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSKeilor Park (W) - Heidelberg United (W)3.003.85%
LOSSFC Jazz - OLS3.103.85%
WINSV Austria Salzburg - First Vienna FC 18943.414.14%
LOSSDesenzano - Giana Erminio3.103.85%
WINHPS (W) - KuPS (W)3.253.56%
WINParceiro Nagano - Renofa Yamaguchi3.254.14%
LOSSYeclano - FC Cartagena3.253.56%
LOSSSchalke - Atalanta3.002.17%
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Pick
1 @ 3.20
Kickoff
Ago 14, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.85% • n=519
Start
Starts in 2d 23h
Updated
Updated 8m ago
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