Leixoes – Tondela

Model: TIPPSH

Leixoes vs Tondela

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.75
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 6:30 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 4d
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.37% · n=266
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.37% · n=266
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Leixoes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LeixoesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.002 | A: -0.017

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

24/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.35First seen
Current2.75Now
Max odds2.75Highest point
Min odds2.35Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeixoesHOME
VS
TondelaAWAY
LWWWL
Recent form
WLLLW
Avg goals scored
2.40
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.60
Shots on target for
6.20
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
3.20
Home splitW-W-W-W3.00 scored / 0.75 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-W-D1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.75. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -2.37% based on n=266 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.75
V2 BandNONEROI -2.37% · n=266
V4 BandNONEROI -2.37% · n=266
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Leixoes. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Leixoes's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 38.0% 7D: 13.8% 15D: 13.8% 30D: 12.2%
Model insight

Leixoes – Tondela Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -2.37% and -2.37%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample53
Win Rate35.8%
Profit-1.10u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINBonnyrigg Rose - Annan Athletic2.80-2.37%
WINCA Talleres de Cordoba (W) - San Lorenzo (W)2.90-2.37%
LOSSFC Baranovichi - BATE Borisov2.76-2.37%
LOSSTrefelin BGC - Llandudno2.85-2.37%
LOSSPlymouth - Bristol City2.80-2.37%
LOSSLeones FC - Barcelona Guayaquil2.89-2.37%
LOSSAlianza - Deportes Tolima2.79-2.37%
WINFram Reykjavik (W) - Valur Reykjavik (W)2.96-2.37%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Leyton Orient - Sheff Wed13.00-1.00%15 Aug 16:00
Pick
1 @ 2.75
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 6:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -2.37% • n=266
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-2.37% • n=266
Start
Starts in 4d
Updated
Updated 13m ago
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