Model: TIPPSA

Tobol Kostanay vs Partizan Belgrade

PREDICTION

@ 2.28

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 13, 2026 7:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 1d 22h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Partizan Belgrade. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Partizan BelgradeGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.044 | A: 0.063

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

42/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.29First seen

Current2.37Now

Max odds2.37Highest point

Min odds2.21Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Tobol KostanayHOME

Partizan BelgradeAWAY

LLLDW

Recent form

WWLWW

Avg goals scored

0.60

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.60

0.80

Shots on target for

4.00

6.20

SoT conceded pressure

6.80

2.20

Home splitL-D-W-W-W1.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitW-W-W-D-W2.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.28. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UEFA Conference League Qualifying. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.28

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Partizan Belgrade is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -6.1% 7D: 7.5% 15D: 11.9% 30D: 10.6%

Model insight

Tobol Kostanay – Partizan Belgrade Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.28. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample168

Win Rate41.1%

Profit-10.96u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Wuxi Wugo - Guangdong GZ-Power	2.07	2.63%
LOSS	Arkonia Szczecin U19 - Gornik Zabrze U19	2.39	4.13%
WIN	SV Ried - Rapid Vienna	2.40	4.13%
WIN	Huachipato - Everton de Vina	2.29	4.13%
LOSS	PSG - Man Utd	2.08	2.63%
LOSS	Arbroath - Inverness CT	2.27	3.43%
WIN	GBK - Huima/Urho	2.47	3.43%
LOSS	Sarmiento - Independiente Rivadavia	2.21	2.63%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
HB Køge - Hvidovre IF	2	2.08	2.63%	15 Aug 16:00
FC Utrecht - AZ	2	2.47	3.59%	15 Aug 18:45

Pick

2 @ 2.28

Kickoff

Ago 13, 2026 7:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.13% • n=261

Start

Started 1d 22h ago

Updated

Updated 2d ago