Excelsior Virton – Lierse Kempenzonen

Model: TipA1

Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.88
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 15, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 0
StartStarted 23h 4m ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.52% · n=654
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.82% · n=246
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Lierse Kempenzonen. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Lierse KempenzonenGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.093 | A: 0.121

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

51/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.87First seen
Current3.05Now
Max odds3.05Highest point
Min odds2.87Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Excelsior VirtonHOME
VS
Lierse KempenzonenAWAY
WDWLL
Recent form
LDWLL
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.40
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.20
Shots on target for
2.80
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
2.40
Home splitW-W-W-W2.25 scored / 0.00 conceded
Away splitL-D-W-L-L1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.88. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.82% based on n=246 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Belgium First Division B (be). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.88
V2 BandHIGHROI 5.52% · n=654
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.82% · n=246
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Lierse Kempenzonen is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -28.7% 7D: -11.9% 15D: 8.3% 30D: 7.1%
Model insight

Excelsior Virton – Lierse Kempenzonen Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.88. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.52% across 654 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.82% across 246 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample158
Win Rate34.8%
Profit+1.85u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINHIFK - Atlantis3.105.52%
LOSSFC Flora Tallinn (W) - Paide Linnanaiskond (W)2.905.52%
LOSSSFK Vrchovina - FC Trinity Zlin B2.905.52%
WINDerby U21 - Hull U213.005.52%
LOSSHestrafors IF - Qviding FIF2.755.52%
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Pick
2 @ 2.88
Kickoff
Ago 15, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.52% • n=654
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.82% • n=246
Start
Started 23h 4m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 13h ago
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