Model: TIPPSA

Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes

PREDICTION

@ 3.30

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 23, 2026 10:30 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 0

StartStarted 9h 38m ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.79% · n=75

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 11h 42m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Quilmes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: QuilmesGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.024 | A: 0.020

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.23First seen

Current3.45Now

Max odds4.36Highest point

Min odds3.23Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Deportivo MaipuHOME

QuilmesAWAY

WWLWL

Recent form

LWDWD

Avg goals scored

1.40

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.20

1.00

Shots on target for

4.60

5.60

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

3.40

Home splitW-W-D-W-D1.40 scored / 0.40 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-L-D0.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.30. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.79% based on n=75 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Argentina Nacional B (ar). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.30

V2 BandNONEROI -0.79% · n=75

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the selection comes at relatively high odds, the recent statistical profile appears more balanced than the market suggests. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Quilmes has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 30.6% 7D: 11.7% 15D: 4.3% 30D: 3.8%

Model insight

Deportivo Maipu – Quilmes Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.30. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.79% across 75 similar predictions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample40

Win Rate32.5%

Profit+1.12u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Carrarese - Mantova	3.16	-1.07%
LOSS	ASA Targu Mures - Gloria Bistrita	3.14	-1.07%
WIN	Pau - Nancy	3.10	-1.07%
WIN	Solihull Moors - Middlesbrough U21	3.30	-1.31%
LOSS	CD Derio - San Ignacio	3.10	-1.07%
LOSS	Paksi - Kispest Honved	3.51	-1.31%
LOSS	Huehuetecos FC - Deportivo Gomerano	3.39	-0.79%
LOSS	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Chongqing Tonglianglong	3.14	-1.07%

Pick

2 @ 3.30

Kickoff

Ago 23, 2026 10:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -0.79% • n=75

Start

Started 9h 38m ago

Updated

Updated 11h 42m ago