AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Newport County. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Newport CountyGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.040 | A: -0.268Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.10. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.92% based on n=146 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England EFL Cup (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.
AI Match Insight
Although the selection comes at relatively high odds, the recent statistical profile appears more balanced than the market suggests. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Newport County's attacking profile.
AFC Wimbledon – Newport County Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Osasuna - Al Ain SCC | 4.10 | 2.78% |
| LOSS | CSD Municipal - Cartagines | 3.85 | 2.78% |
| LOSS | CD Los Chankas - Sport Boys | 4.07 | 3.92% |
| LOSS | Sarpsborg 08 U19 - KFUM U19 | 3.89 | 3.99% |
| LOSS | Vaxjo (W) - IK Uppsala (W) | 4.17 | 3.92% |
| LOSS | USA - Paraguay | 3.97 | 3.92% |
| LOSS | Askoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC | 4.04 | 2.78% |
| LOSS | Junior - Independiente Santa Fe | 4.10 | 3.92% |