Alloa – Stranraer

Model: TIPPSH

Alloa vs Stranraer

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.80
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 11, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 21h 54m
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 14m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Alloa. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AlloaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.055 | A: -0.094

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

26/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.64First seen
Current1.80Now
Max odds1.80Highest point
Min odds1.63Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AlloaHOME
VS
StranraerAWAY
LDLDD
Recent form
LLLLD
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.60
Defensive weakness
1.60
2.20
Shots on target for
4.20
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.40
6.60
Home splitD-D-D-L-L0.80 scored / 1.80 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-D-W0.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.80. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Scotland League Challenge Cup (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.80
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Alloa is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -16.3% 7D: -2.6% 15D: 8.6% 30D: 8.7%
Model insight

Alloa – Stranraer Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample428
Win Rate50.5%
Profit-19.32u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINFC Koper U19 - NK Fuzinar U191.831.31%
WINKCCA - Kitara FC1.881.04%
WINDrøbak/Frogn - Sandefjord 21.881.04%
LOSSOlympic Mobiuz - Shurtan1.901.04%
LOSSBotev Vratsa - Slavia Sofia1.931.04%
WINCarshalton Ath - Wingate & Finchley1.831.04%
WINCoatepeque FC - Juventud Copalera1.871.04%
WINBasel - FC Thun1.811.04%
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Pick
1 @ 1.80
Kickoff
Ago 11, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Starts in 21h 54m
Updated
Updated 14m ago
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