Basel – FC Thun

Model: TIPPSH

Basel vs FC Thun

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.13
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 09, 2026 6:30 PM
ResultWIN4 - 2
StartStarted 18h 38m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20h 40m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Basel. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BaselGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.065 | A: 0.008

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

30/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.93First seen
Current2.13Now
Max odds2.13Highest point
Min odds1.80Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BaselHOME
VS
FC ThunAWAY
WLWDD
Recent form
LWLLW
Avg goals scored
1.40
2.00
Defensive weakness
1.00
2.80
Shots on target for
3.60
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
6.60
Home splitW-L-D-D-L1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-L-D1.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.13. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Switzerland Super League (ch). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.13
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 10.7% 7D: 9.4% 15D: 7.4% 30D: 9.7%
Model insight

Basel – FC Thun Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.13. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample512
Win Rate48.0%
Profit+0.66u
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Pick
1 @ 2.13
Kickoff
Ago 09, 2026 6:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 18h 38m ago
Updated
Updated 20h 40m ago
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