Model: TIPPSA

Nantes (W) vs Lyon (W)

PREDICTION

@ 2.61

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffApr 29, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 72d 17h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 72d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Lyon (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Lyon (W)

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

47/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.15First seen

Current2.66Now

Max odds3.26Highest point

Min odds2.15Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nantes (W)HOME

Lyon (W)AWAY

Recent form

DLWWW

Avg goals scored

1.50

3.20

Defensive weakness

0.50

0.60

Shots on target for

5.50

5.75

SoT conceded pressure

2.50

4.50

Home splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-L-W2.67 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.61. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.44% based on n=196 historical similar picks. The match belongs to France Division 1 Women (fr). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.61

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.44% · n=196

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.44% · n=196

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -18.1% 7D: 6.6% 15D: 2.3% 30D: 14.0%

Model insight

Nantes (W) – Lyon (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.61. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.44% and 4.44%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample118

Win Rate41.5%

Profit+7.81u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Fencibles United - East Coast Bays	2.81	4.96%
WIN	Santamarina Tandil - Club Villa Mitre	2.65	4.13%
WIN	New Zealand (W) - Haiti (W)	2.86	4.96%
WIN	Maldives - Afghanistan	2.63	4.13%
WIN	Chongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan	2.52	3.43%
LOSS	Deportes Recoleta - San Luis Quillota	2.56	3.43%
LOSS	IF Gnistan - SJK	2.51	4.13%
LOSS	Cadiz - Leganes	2.86	4.96%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.61

Kickoff

Apr 29, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.44% • n=196

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.44% • n=196

Start

Started 72d 17h ago

Updated

Updated 72d 19h ago