Model: TIPPSH

Araz FK vs FK Kapaz

PREDICTION

@ 2.14

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 15, 2026 7:30 PM

ResultWIN2 - 0

StartStarted 58d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 58d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Araz FK. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Araz FK

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

43/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.99First seen

Current2.14Now

Max odds2.14Highest point

Min odds1.99Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Araz FKHOME

FK KapazAWAY

WLLDL

Recent form

LWWLL

Avg goals scored

0.80

0.60

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.20

Shots on target for

3.20

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

2.60

6.40

Home splitW-L-L-L1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-L0.50 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.14. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.86% based on n=299 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Azerbaijan Premier League (az). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.14

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 27.2% 7D: 21.1% 15D: -2.1% 30D: 0.2%

Model insight

Araz FK – FK Kapaz Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.14. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample269

Win Rate46.1%

Profit-14.29u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Kerry FC	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Alamein FC (W) - Preston Lions (W)	1.90	3.37%
WIN	BFA Vilnius - FK Ekranas	2.25	3.15%
LOSS	Nautico - EC Juventude	2.27	3.15%
WIN	FK Jelgava - SC Grobinas	2.05	3.37%
WIN	Cuiaba - America MG	2.13	3.37%
LOSS	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves - Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	2.38	3.15%
LOSS	Jacuipense U20 - Fluminense De Feira U20	2.30	2.49%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00

Pick

1 @ 2.14

Kickoff

Mag 15, 2026 7:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.86% • n=299

Start

Started 58d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 58d 8h ago