Model: TIPPSH
AT Malveira – CG Vitoria Sernache
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.62
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 3
StartStarted 3d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.15% · n=323
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 3d 4h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | AT Malveira | CG Vitoria Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-D-L-D-L | W-D-W-D-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-L-L (home) | W-W-W-L-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.25 scored / 2.25 conceded | 1.80 scored / 1.20 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.60 for / 3.40 against | 2.00 for / 3.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.00 for / 4.00 against (home) | 2.80 for / 3.40 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.43First seen
Current2.62Now
Max odds2.63Highest point
Min odds2.43Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
AT Malveira – CG Vitoria Sernache Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.62. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.15% across 323 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample9
Win Rate55.6%
Profit+3.73u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Island Bay United - Petone FC | 2.68 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Leones de Rosario - General Lamadrid | 2.38 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Essendon Royals (W) - Box Hill (W) | 2.40 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Sao Goncalo - Cabofriense | 2.78 | 4.53% |
| LOSS | KS Mszczonowianka - Wilga Garwolin | 2.41 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Mlandege FC - Uhamiaji FC | 2.57 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Gimnasia Mendoza Reserves - Atletico Tucuman Reserves | 2.50 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Ural - Dynamo Makhachkala | 2.56 | 3.15% |
Pick
1 @ 2.62
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.15% • n=323
Start
Started 3d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 3d 4h ago