Bentleigh Greens – South Melbourne

Model: TipA1

Bentleigh Greens vs South Melbourne

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.25
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 19, 2026 1:30 PM
ResultWIN1 - 5
StartStarted 44d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 46d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is South Melbourne. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: South MelbourneGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

43/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.83First seen
Current2.25Now
Max odds2.25Highest point
Min odds1.83Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Bentleigh GreensHOME
VS
South MelbourneAWAY
LLLLD
Recent form
WLDLL
Avg goals scored
0.40
1.80
Defensive weakness
3.20
2.20
Shots on target for
2.60
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
7.00
5.40
Home splitL-L-D-D-W1.40 scored / 2.40 conceded
Away splitW-D-L-W-W2.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.25. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.27% based on n=1151 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia NPL Victoria (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.25
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to South Melbourne's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 15.9% 7D: -6.6% 15D: -1.7% 30D: 9.3%
Model insight

Bentleigh Greens – South Melbourne Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample202
Win Rate40.6%
Profit-14.13u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSStockport - Preston2.203.75%
LOSSCove Rangers - Airdrieonians2.254.27%
WINRuthin Town FC - Holyhead Hotspur2.454.27%
LOSSSV Leobendorf - Parndorf2.404.27%
WINBurgan SC - Al-Jazeera KWT2.153.75%
WINPachuca U19 (W) - Toluca U19 (W)2.304.27%
WINDominican Republic (W) - El Salvador (W)2.404.27%
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Pick
2 @ 2.25
Kickoff
Giu 19, 2026 1:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151
Start
Started 44d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 46d 6h ago
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