Model: TIPPSA

BFA Vilnius vs FK Garliava

PREDICTION

@ 2.30

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 19, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 1

StartStarted 52d 21h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 53d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FK Garliava. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FK Garliava

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

40/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.15First seen

Current2.20Now

Max odds2.20Highest point

Min odds2.10Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BFA VilniusHOME

FK GarliavaAWAY

WLLLW

Recent form

LWWWW

Avg goals scored

0.80

2.40

Defensive weakness

2.40

0.80

Shots on target for

3.80

6.40

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

2.20

Home splitW-L-L-W-W1.40 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitL-W-W-L-W1.80 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.43% based on n=79 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Lithuania Cup (lt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.30

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors FK Garliava. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. FK Garliava is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 20.4% 7D: 20.8% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 1.4%

Model insight

BFA Vilnius – FK Garliava Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.30. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.43% and 3.43%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample151

Win Rate41.1%

Profit-7.79u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Craigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)	2.34	3.43%
LOSS	Union La Calera - Universidad de Chile	2.29	3.59%
LOSS	Votoraty U23 - Guarulhos U23	2.08	2.63%
LOSS	Vidar - Pors Grenland	2.08	2.63%
WIN	Chongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan	2.52	3.43%
LOSS	IF Gnistan - SJK	2.51	4.13%
LOSS	Lech Poznan UAM (W) - Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	2.25	3.59%
LOSS	Chrobry Glogow - LKS Lodz	2.19	2.63%

Pick

2 @ 2.30

Kickoff

Mag 19, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.43% • n=79

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

3.43% • n=79

Start

Started 52d 21h ago

Updated

Updated 53d 1h ago