Model: TipA1

Brasiliense U20 vs Capital CF U20

PREDICTION

@ 2.75

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 04, 2026 10:30 PM

ResultLOSS4 - 2

StartStarted 49d 23h ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.82% · n=246

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 50d 21h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Capital CF U20. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Capital CF U20Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

49/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.79First seen

Current2.84Now

Max odds2.84Highest point

Min odds2.79Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Brasiliense U20HOME

Capital CF U20AWAY

WDWWW

Recent form

LWWWW

Avg goals scored

3.00

4.60

Defensive weakness

0.40

1.20

Shots on target for

5.20

9.00

SoT conceded pressure

2.60

3.00

Home splitW-W2.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-W-D1.33 scored / 1.67 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.75. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.82% based on n=246 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Brasiliense U20 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.75

V2 BandHIGHROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.82% · n=246

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The market prices Capital CF U20 as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Capital CF U20 is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 34.8% 7D: 65.8% 15D: 27.3% 30D: 11.5%

Model insight

Brasiliense U20 – Capital CF U20 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.75. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.52% across 654 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.82% across 246 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample166

Win Rate36.7%

Profit+3.05u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Gremio Anapolis - Mineiros	2.88	5.52%
WIN	ATUS Ferlach - Launsdorf	2.75	5.52%
LOSS	Cove Rangers - Peterhead	2.63	6.36%
WIN	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Club Aurora	3.00	5.52%
WIN	PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) - TPS (W)	2.75	5.52%
WIN	BKMA FC - Ararat Yerevan	3.00	5.52%
WIN	CSM Ramnicu Valcea - CSM Slatina	2.50	6.36%
LOSS	Excelsior Virton - Lierse Kempenzonen	2.88	5.52%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Forfar - Formartine United	2	2.75	5.52%	25 Aug 20:45

Pick

2 @ 2.75

Kickoff

Lug 04, 2026 10:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 5.52% • n=654

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.82% • n=246

Start

Started 49d 23h ago

Updated

Updated 50d 21h ago