Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki

Model: TIPPSA

Cerezo Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.73
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultLOSS3 - 2
StartStarted 63d 1h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.42% · n=28
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 63d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is V-Varen Nagasaki. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: V-Varen Nagasaki

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

38/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.62First seen
Current4.93Now
Max odds4.93Highest point
Min odds3.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Cerezo OsakaHOME
VS
V-Varen NagasakiAWAY
WDDDL
Recent form
LWLWD
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.60
Shots on target for
4.20
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
4.80
Home splitW-D-W2.33 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-W-L-L1.00 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.73. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -2.42% based on n=28 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan J-League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.73
V2 BandNONEROI -2.42% · n=28
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the selection comes at relatively high odds, the recent statistical profile appears more balanced than the market suggests. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -3.2% 7D: -10.0% 15D: -4.9% 30D: 5.3%
Model insight

Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.73. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.42% across 28 similar predictions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample14
Win Rate28.6%
Profit+4.46u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINLyon - Lens4.60-0.38%
LOSSDijon - US Orleans 454.50-0.38%
LOSSFC Sevlievo - Belasitsa4.87-0.56%
WINGetafe - Rayo Vallecano4.53-0.38%
LOSSAuckland City - Fencibles United4.52-2.42%
LOSSSeattle Sounders - St. Louis City SC4.94-0.56%
LOSSMillwall - QPR4.98-0.56%
LOSSJippo II - PK-374.77-0.56%
Pick
2 @ 4.73
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -2.42% • n=28
Start
Started 63d 1h ago
Updated
Updated 63d 3h ago
Torna in alto