Model: TIPPSA
Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki
PREDICTION
2
@ 4.73
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultLOSS3 - 2
StartStarted 17d 12h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.42% · n=28
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 17d 14h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Cerezo Osaka | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-D-D-D-L | L-W-L-W-D |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-W (home) | L-W-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.33 scored / 1.00 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.75 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 4.60 against | 4.60 for / 4.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.00 for / 3.33 against (home) | 3.00 for / 5.75 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The market prices V-Varen Nagasaki as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.62First seen
Current4.93Now
Max odds4.93Highest point
Min odds3.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.73. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.42% across 28 similar predictions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample14
Win Rate28.6%
Profit+4.46u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Lyon - Lens | 4.60 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | Dijon - US Orleans 45 | 4.50 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | FC Sevlievo - Belasitsa | 4.87 | -0.56% |
| WIN | Getafe - Rayo Vallecano | 4.53 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | Auckland City - Fencibles United | 4.52 | -2.42% |
| LOSS | Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City SC | 4.94 | -0.56% |
| LOSS | Millwall - QPR | 4.98 | -0.56% |
| LOSS | Jippo II - PK-37 | 4.77 | -0.56% |
Pick
2 @ 4.73
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -2.42% • n=28
Start
Started 17d 12h ago
Updated
Updated 17d 14h ago