Model: TIPPSA
Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki
PREDICTION
2
@ 4.23
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultLOSS3 - 2
StartStarted 18d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.07% · n=37
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 18d 12h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Cerezo Osaka | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-D-D-D-L | L-W-L-W-D |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-W (home) | L-W-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.33 scored / 1.00 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.75 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 4.60 against | 4.60 for / 4.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.00 for / 3.33 against (home) | 3.00 for / 5.75 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.62First seen
Current4.23Now
Max odds4.23Highest point
Min odds3.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Cerezo Osaka – V-Varen Nagasaki Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.23. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.07% across 37 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample4
Win Rate0.0%
Profit-4.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Junior - Independiente Santa Fe | 4.10 | 3.92% |
| LOSS | Gremio Novorizontino - Ceara | 4.08 | 3.99% |
| LOSS | Goias - Criciuma | 4.18 | 3.07% |
Pick
2 @ 4.23
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.07% • n=37
Start
Started 18d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 18d 12h ago