Gremio Novorizontino – Ceara

Model: TIPPSA

Gremio Novorizontino vs Ceara

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.06
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 48d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.99% · n=49
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.99% · n=49
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 48d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ceara. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ceara

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.81First seen
Current4.06Now
Max odds4.21Highest point
Min odds3.58Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Gremio NovorizontinoHOME
VS
CearaAWAY
WLDWW
Recent form
LWWLL
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.00
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.20
Shots on target for
4.20
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
5.80
4.40
Home splitW-L-W-L-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-W-L1.00 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.06. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.99% based on n=49 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.06
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.99% · n=49
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.99% · n=49
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Ceara. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 34.1% 7D: 31.8% 15D: 22.3% 30D: 7.7%
Model insight

Gremio Novorizontino – Ceara Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.06. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.99% and 3.99%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample11
Win Rate18.2%
Profit-3.20u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSItuano - Figueirense3.812.78%
LOSSSarpsborg 08 U19 - KFUM U193.893.99%
LOSSVaxjo (W) - IK Uppsala (W)4.173.92%
LOSSUSA - Paraguay3.973.92%
LOSSAskoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC4.042.78%
LOSSJunior - Independiente Santa Fe4.103.92%
LOSSCerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki4.103.07%
WINJacuipense - Imperatriz3.973.07%
Pick
2 @ 4.06
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.99% • n=49
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.99% • n=49
Start
Started 48d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 48d 13h ago
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