Model: TIPPSH

Charlton vs Derby

PREDICTION

@ 2.75

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2d 18h

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.96% · n=84

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.96% · n=84

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 5m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Charlton. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CharltonGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.022 | A: 0.106

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

60/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.71First seen

Current2.75Now

Max odds2.75Highest point

Min odds2.71Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CharltonHOME

DerbyAWAY

WLWLW

Recent form

LDLWL

Avg goals scored

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.20

1.40

Shots on target for

5.20

2.80

SoT conceded pressure

2.40

3.00

Home splitL-W-L-L-L1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitD-L-W-W-W1.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.75. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.96% based on n=84 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Championship (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.75

V2 BandHIGHROI 7.96% · n=84

V4 BandHIGHROI 7.96% · n=84

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Charlton has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. Comparable matches classified within the HIGH confidence range have historically generated positive model outcomes. Charlton is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -1.5% 7D: 3.2% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 10.9%

Model insight

Charlton – Derby Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.96% and 7.96%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample11

Win Rate9.1%

Profit-8.37u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	MFK Zvolen - FC Tatran Presov	3.00	7.96%
LOSS	Athlone Town - UCD	2.82	7.96%
LOSS	Paraguay - Australia	2.91	7.96%
LOSS	FC Yamato Sylphid (W) - Veertien Mie (W)	2.75	7.96%
LOSS	Haras El Hedoud - Petrojet	2.87	7.96%
LOSS	FC Copenhagen - Midtjylland	2.51	6.90%
LOSS	Al-Arabi Al-Saudi - Al Jandal	2.63	6.90%
LOSS	Escola Varsovia U19 - Lech Poznan U19	2.70	6.90%

Pick

1 @ 2.75

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 7.96% • n=84

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

7.96% • n=84

Start

Starts in 2d 18h

Updated

Updated 5m ago