Model: TIPPSH

Stoke vs Swansea

PREDICTION

@ 2.43

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 3d 14h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.15% · n=323

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 12m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Stoke. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: StokeGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.013 | A: 0.016

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.43First seen

Current2.43Now

Max odds2.43Highest point

Min odds2.43Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

StokeHOME

SwanseaAWAY

WDWDL

Recent form

LWWLD

Avg goals scored

1.00

Defensive weakness

0.60

1.00

Shots on target for

4.80

4.40

SoT conceded pressure

3.80

2.80

Home splitW-D-W-L-L1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-W-W-D1.75 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.43. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.15% based on n=323 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Championship (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.43

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.15% · n=323

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The market prices Stoke as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -1.5% 7D: 3.2% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 10.9%

Model insight

Stoke – Swansea Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.43. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.15% across 323 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample152

Win Rate46.7%

Profit+16.27u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Gimnastica de Torrelavega - Sestao River	2.40	2.49%
WIN	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	2.55	2.49%
WIN	Norrby IF - Orebro SK	2.26	3.15%
LOSS	FC Spartak Velka Bites - TJ Tatran Bohunice	2.25	3.15%
WIN	Auckland FC II - East Coast Bays	2.50	2.49%
LOSS	Apollon Limassol - SK Brann	2.29	2.49%
WIN	Wisloka Debica - JKS Jaroslaw	2.34	3.15%
WIN	Hapoel Jerusalem - Hapoel Petah Tikva	2.45	3.15%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Barnet - Salford City	1	2.38	3.15%	15 Aug 16:00
Rostov - Rubin Kazan	1	2.20	3.37%	15 Aug 17:30
Sheff Utd - Birmingham	1	2.62	2.49%	15 Aug 18:30

Pick

1 @ 2.43

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.15% • n=323

Start

Starts in 3d 14h

Updated

Updated 12m ago