Chelsea – Brighton

Model: TIPPSA

Chelsea vs Brighton

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.13
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 30, 2026 5:00 PM
ResultLOSS4 - 3
StartStarted 1d 14h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.92% · n=146
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 16h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Brighton. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BrightonGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.019 | A: 0.102

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.90First seen
Current4.20Now
Max odds4.25Highest point
Min odds3.87Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ChelseaHOME
VS
BrightonAWAY
WWWWD
Recent form
LWWDW
Avg goals scored
3.00
2.40
Defensive weakness
1.80
0.80
Shots on target for
6.60
7.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
1.80
Home splitW-W-W-W-L2.40 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-D1.20 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.13. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.92% based on n=146 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.13
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.92% · n=146
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -2.3% 7D: 6.7% 15D: 14.3% 30D: 9.2%
Model insight

Chelsea – Brighton Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.13. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.92% across 146 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample20
Win Rate15.0%
Profit-8.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSPuebla (W) - Necaxa (W)4.053.92%
LOSSWalsall - Accrington Stanley4.233.92%
LOSSFortuna Dusseldorf - VfB Stuttgart II4.193.92%
LOSSVardar Skopje - FK Sileks4.053.99%
WINAlacranes de Durango - Universidad Guadalajara3.933.92%
LOSSGuayaquil City - Club Atletico Libertad4.182.78%
LOSSAthletico Paranaense - Bragantino4.193.92%
WINOsasuna - Al Ain SCC4.102.78%
Pick
2 @ 4.13
Kickoff
Ago 30, 2026 5:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.92% • n=146
Start
Started 1d 14h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 16h ago
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