Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Connah's Quay. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Connah's QuayGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.71. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Connah's Quay. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.
Connah’s Quay – Caernarfon Town Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Laholms FK - FC Trollhättan | 2.88 | 4.53% |
| LOSS | Huntsville City - Crown Legacy | 2.83 | 4.53% |
| LOSS | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield | 2.66 | 3.15% |
| LOSS | Independiente FBC - Deportivo Capiata | 2.76 | 4.53% |
| LOSS | MSK Zilina B - FC Petrzalka | 2.62 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Dag & Red - Buxton | 2.54 | 2.49% |
| WIN | America MG - Goias | 2.54 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | SV Wienerberg - SC Wiener Viktoria | 2.75 | 4.53% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry FC - Cobh Ramblers | 1 | 2.47 | 2.49% | 03 Aug 18:00 |
| HB Torshavn - NSI Runavik | 1 | 2.55 | 2.49% | 03 Aug 19:30 |
| Velez Sarsfield - CA Independiente | 1 | 2.49 | 2.49% | 04 Aug 00:00 |