Denbigh Town – Porthmadog

Model: TipA1

Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.60
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 21, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 22h 46m
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.02% · n=648
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 48m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Porthmadog. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PorthmadogGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.014 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

35/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.60First seen
Current2.60Now
Max odds2.60Highest point
Min odds2.60Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Denbigh TownHOME
VS
PorthmadogAWAY
LLWLW
Recent form
DWW
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.67
Defensive weakness
1.80
0.67
Shots on target for
6.00
5.67
SoT conceded pressure
7.40
3.00
Home splitL-L-W0.67 scored / 1.33 conceded
Away splitD-W2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.60. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.02% based on n=648 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Championship North (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.60
V2 BandLOWROI 1.02% · n=648
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendStable
VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 67.3% 7D: 4.6% 15D: 4.7% 30D: 4.4%
Model insight

Denbigh Town – Porthmadog Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.60. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.02% across 648 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample133
Win Rate35.3%
Profit-15.85u
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WINSR Fach-Donaufeld - Oberwart2.551.02%
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WINGosport Borough - Hanworth Villa2.401.02%
LOSSBom Jesus - Rio Verde2.501.02%
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Pick
2 @ 2.60
Kickoff
Ago 21, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.02% • n=648
Start
Starts in 22h 46m
Updated
Updated 48m ago
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