Model: TIPPSA
Deportivo Riestra – CA Independiente
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.36
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 25, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 0
StartStarted 32d ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.40% · n=230
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 32d 9h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Deportivo Riestra | CA Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-L-L-D | L-W-D-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.40 | 1.25 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | W-L-D (home) | L-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.67 scored / 0.33 conceded | 0.50 scored / 1.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.00 for / 4.60 against | 3.25 for / 2.50 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.00 for / 3.00 against (home) | 2.00 for / 4.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives CA Independiente a useful statistical edge. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. CA Independiente is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.23First seen
Current2.36Now
Max odds2.45Highest point
Min odds2.23Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Deportivo Riestra – CA Independiente Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.36. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.40% across 230 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample146
Win Rate39.7%
Profit-8.83u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2.25 | 3.43% |
| LOSS | Lobos UPNFM Reserves - CD Marathon Reserves | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | NK Radomlje - NS Mura | 2.55 | 4.13% |
| LOSS | Radnik Bijeljina - Borac Banja Luka | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | ADO Den Haag (W) - PEC Zwolle (W) | 2.25 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Guayaquil City - Orense | 2.48 | 3.59% |
| LOSS | AFC Hermannstadt - FCSB | 2.26 | 3.31% |
| LOSS | Kasimpasa - Galatasaray | 2.27 | 3.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.36
Kickoff
Apr 25, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
0.40% • n=230
Start
Started 32d ago
Updated
Updated 32d 9h ago