Model: TIPPSA
Drogheda United – Derry City
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.38
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 08, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 0
StartStarted 18d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 18d 5h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Drogheda United | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-W-W-D | L-D-D-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Home/Away form | W-W-L-L-D (home) | L-D-W-D-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 1.20 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.80 for / 6.40 against | 4.60 for / 3.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.20 for / 4.80 against (home) | 3.60 for / 4.20 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Derry City is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.40First seen
Current2.41Now
Max odds2.43Highest point
Min odds2.17Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Drogheda United – Derry City Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample152
Win Rate38.8%
Profit-11.18u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2.25 | 3.43% |
| LOSS | Lobos UPNFM Reserves - CD Marathon Reserves | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | NK Radomlje - NS Mura | 2.55 | 4.13% |
| LOSS | Radnik Bijeljina - Borac Banja Luka | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | ADO Den Haag (W) - PEC Zwolle (W) | 2.25 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Helsingborg - Varbergs BoIS FC | 2.63 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Guayaquil City - Orense | 2.48 | 3.59% |
| LOSS | AFC Hermannstadt - FCSB | 2.26 | 3.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.38
Kickoff
Mag 08, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Start
Started 18d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 18d 5h ago