Drogheda United – Derry City

Model: TIPPSA

Drogheda United vs Derry City

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.38
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 08, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 0
StartStarted 65d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 65d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Derry City. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Derry City

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.40First seen
Current2.41Now
Max odds2.43Highest point
Min odds2.17Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Drogheda UnitedHOME
VS
Derry CityAWAY
WLWWD
Recent form
LDDWW
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.60
0.80
Shots on target for
2.80
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
6.40
3.20
Home splitW-W-L-L-D1.00 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-D-W-D-D1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.38. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.31% based on n=578 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Republic of Ireland Premier Division (ie). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.38
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Derry City is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -33.5% 7D: -14.6% 15D: -8.3% 30D: 5.3%
Model insight

Drogheda United – Derry City Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample160
Win Rate38.8%
Profit-11.69u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSUnion La Calera - Universidad de Chile2.293.59%
WINMaldives - Afghanistan2.634.13%
WINChongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan2.523.43%
LOSSDeportes Recoleta - San Luis Quillota2.563.43%
LOSSIF Gnistan - SJK2.514.13%
LOSSLech Poznan UAM (W) - Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)2.253.59%
LOSSChrobry Glogow - LKS Lodz2.192.63%
Pick
2 @ 2.38
Kickoff
Mag 08, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Start
Started 65d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 65d 5h ago
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