Model: TipTromba35H

Dundalk vs St Patricks

PREDICTION

@ 3.40

StatusUpcoming

KickoffSet 04, 2026 10:45 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 3d 19h

V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.81% · n=117

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.81% · n=117

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Dundalk. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: DundalkGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.060 | A: 0.006

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

69/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

DundalkHOME

St PatricksAWAY

WLWLD

Recent form

LWWWD

Avg goals scored

3.00

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.20

Shots on target for

7.80

6.40

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

4.40

Home splitL-W-D-W-L2.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitW-W-D-L-L1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.40. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 8.81% based on n=117 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Republic of Ireland Premier Division (ie). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd3.40

V2 BandELITEROI 8.81% · n=117

V4 BandELITEROI 8.81% · n=117

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Dundalk's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 18.4% 7D: 8.4% 15D: 16.6% 30D: 8.5%

Model insight

Dundalk – St Patricks Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.40. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 8.81% and 8.81%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample42

Win Rate33.3%

Profit+4.18u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Al-Saqer FC - Al Okhdood	3.25	8.81%
LOSS	FC Yamato Sylphid (W) - Nankatsu SC (W)	3.25	8.81%
LOSS	Birzebbuga - Sliema Wanderers	3.40	8.81%
LOSS	LKS Lodz III - Sokol Aleksandrow	3.30	8.81%
LOSS	NK Dinamo Predavac - NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	3.30	8.81%
LOSS	Lyon Duchere - Vallieres	3.25	8.81%
WIN	Island Bay United - Wellington Phoenix Reserves	3.28	8.81%
LOSS	Lillehammer - Strommen	3.20	13.12%

Pick

1 @ 3.40

Kickoff

Set 04, 2026 10:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: ELITE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 8.81% • n=117

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

8.81% • n=117

Start

Starts in 3d 19h

Updated

Updated 6m ago