Model: TIPPSH
Dunfermline vs Ayr
PREDICTION
1
@ 1.96
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 08, 2026 6:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 7h 18m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 9h 20m ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Dunfermline. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: DunfermlineGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.131 | A: 0.191Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
28/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.05First seen
Current1.96Now
Max odds2.10Highest point
Min odds1.96Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
DunfermlineHOME
VS
AyrAWAY
DDWWW
Recent form
DWWWW
Avg goals scored
2.20
2.00
Defensive weakness
0.40
0.40
Shots on target for
7.40
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
2.00
Home splitD-W-W-D-W2.40 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitD-W-W-L-L1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.96. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Scotland Championship (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.
Pick1
Odd1.96
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityMedium
AI Match Insight
The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Dunfermline's attacking profile.
Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 10.7%
7D: 17.6%
15D: 6.1%
30D: 11.5%
Model insight
Dunfermline – Ayr Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.96. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample567
Win Rate48.9%
Profit-24.50u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Gyirmot SE - Kazincbarcikai BSC | 2.07 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Aveley - Eastbourne Borough | 2.10 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | Atlético Tucumán - Sarmiento | 1.86 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Talleres Remedios - Argentino Merlo | 1.78 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Wisla Plock II - Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 2.00 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Hanworth Villa - Taunton Town | 2.07 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Benesov - Aritma Praha | 2.05 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Truro City - Maidenhead Utd | 2.03 | 1.04% |
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Pick
1 @ 1.96
Kickoff
Ago 08, 2026 6:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 7h 18m ago
Updated
Updated 9h 20m ago