Elversberg – Bayer Leverkusen

Model: TIPPSH

Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen

PREDICTION
1
@ 5.36
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 29, 2026 5:30 PM
ResultWIN3 - 2
StartStarted 1d 22h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.98% · n=21
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Elversberg. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ElversbergGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.087 | A: 0.104

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

58/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.64First seen
Current5.36Now
Max odds5.64Highest point
Min odds5.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ElversbergHOME
VS
Bayer LeverkusenAWAY
WWWDW
Recent form
LWWLW
Avg goals scored
3.20
2.20
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.40
Shots on target for
7.00
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
3.80
Home splitW-W-L-D-W2.40 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-W-W-L-W2.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 5.36. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.98% based on n=21 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Germany Bundesliga I (de). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd5.36
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.98% · n=21
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Elversberg shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Elversberg has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -6.6% 7D: 16.7% 15D: 13.7% 30D: 10.9%
Model insight

Elversberg – Bayer Leverkusen Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 5.36. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.98% across 21 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample7
Win Rate28.6%
Profit+3.85u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINAurrera de Vitoria - Amorebieta5.492.54%
LOSSHapoel Tel Aviv - Atalanta5.472.98%
LOSSPhilippines - Thailand5.562.54%
LOSSDundee Utd - Rangers5.522.98%
LOSSNingbo Professional FC - Chongqing Tonglianglong5.502.54%
LOSSKMG Holdings - Veroskronos Tsuno5.312.98%
Pick
1 @ 5.36
Kickoff
Ago 29, 2026 5:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.98% • n=21
Start
Started 1d 22h ago
Updated
Updated 2d ago
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