Model: TipTromba4H

Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

PREDICTION

@ 3.90

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffSet 06, 2026 1:00 PM

ResultWIN3 - 2

StartStarted 20h 36m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fagiano Okayama. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Fagiano OkayamaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.020 | A: 0.090

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

56/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.53First seen

Current3.93Now

Max odds4.11Highest point

Min odds3.53Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Fagiano OkayamaHOME

Sanfrecce HiroshimaAWAY

WWLWD

Recent form

LWDWD

Avg goals scored

1.80

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.00

Shots on target for

4.00

6.40

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

4.00

Home splitW-W-D-W-W1.80 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-W-W2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.09% based on n=255 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan J-League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd3.90

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Fagiano Okayama. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 3.0% 7D: 12.8% 15D: 12.3% 30D: 6.8%

Model insight

Fagiano Okayama – Sanfrecce Hiroshima Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.90. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba4H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.09% and 4.09%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample108

Win Rate34.3%

Profit+32.25u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Calasancio - Alfaro	3.80	4.09%
LOSS	UD Tamaraceite - Sevilla Atletico	3.75	4.09%
LOSS	Jorge Gibson Brown - La Cantera FC	3.80	4.09%
LOSS	Real Murcia B - Orihuela	3.75	4.09%
WIN	RC Hades - Antwerp II	3.70	3.99%
LOSS	Ghiroda SI Giarmata VII - CS Metalurgistul Cugir	3.75	4.09%
WIN	Audax RJ U20 - Sao Goncalo U20	3.70	3.99%
LOSS	Tajikistan U20 - Bahrain U20	3.75	4.09%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Atletico River Plate Reserves - Nacional de Montevideo Reserves	1	3.75	4.09%	07 Sep 20:00

Pick

1 @ 3.90

Kickoff

Set 06, 2026 1:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.09% • n=255

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.09% • n=255

Start

Started 20h 36m ago

Updated

Updated 1d 5h ago