Calasancio – Alfaro

Model: TipTromba4H

Calasancio vs Alfaro

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.80
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 06, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 12h 57m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Calasancio. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CalasancioGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: -0.093

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

55/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.80First seen
Current4.04Now
Max odds4.04Highest point
Min odds3.80Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CalasancioHOME
VS
AlfaroAWAY
D
Recent form
DLLLW
Avg goals scored
2.00
0.80
Defensive weakness
2.00
2.00
Shots on target for
2.00
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
6.00
3.60
Home splitD2.00 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitD-L-L1.00 scored / 2.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.80. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.09% based on n=255 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Tercera Group 16 (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.80
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Calasancio. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -0.1% 7D: 9.4% 15D: 10.7% 30D: 5.9%
Model insight

Calasancio – Alfaro Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.80. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba4H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.09% and 4.09%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample135
Win Rate32.6%
Profit+30.45u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINFagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima3.904.09%
LOSSUD Tamaraceite - Sevilla Atletico3.754.09%
LOSSSun Hei - Sui Tung3.604.85%
LOSSJorge Gibson Brown - La Cantera FC3.804.09%
LOSSReal Murcia B - Orihuela3.754.09%
WINRC Hades - Antwerp II3.703.99%
LOSSGhiroda SI Giarmata VII - CS Metalurgistul Cugir3.754.09%
WINAudax RJ U20 - Sao Goncalo U203.703.99%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Atletico River Plate Reserves - Nacional de Montevideo Reserves13.754.09%07 Sep 20:00
Pick
1 @ 3.80
Kickoff
Set 06, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.09% • n=255
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.09% • n=255
Start
Started 12h 57m ago
Updated
Updated 1d ago
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