Model: TIPPSH

FC Gagra vs FC Spaeri

PREDICTION

@ 2.30

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 17, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 11h 24m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2h 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FC Gagra. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FC GagraGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.074 | A: 0.045

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.55First seen

Current2.55Now

Max odds2.55Highest point

Min odds2.55Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FC GagraHOME

FC SpaeriAWAY

DWWDD

Recent form

LLWLD

Avg goals scored

1.80

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.40

Shots on target for

6.40

3.40

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

4.60

Home splitD-W-W-D-L1.20 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-W-D-L-D1.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Georgia Erovnuli Liga (ge). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.30

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. FC Gagra is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -16.1% 7D: -18.8% 15D: -2.7% 30D: 3.0%

Model insight

FC Gagra – FC Spaeri Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.30. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample220

Win Rate43.2%

Profit-4.72u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	KT Reykjavik (W) - Dalvik/Reynir (W)	2.33	2.49%
LOSS	Tabasalu FC Charma - JK Tallinna Kalev II	2.31	2.49%
WIN	Moreton City Excelsior U23 - Lions FC U23	2.35	2.49%
LOSS	Torslanda IK - Dalstorps IF	2.35	2.49%
LOSS	ASD Pineto Calcio - Gubbio	2.42	2.49%
LOSS	Yarmouk - Al Salibikhaet SC	2.33	2.49%
WIN	North Star - Caboolture FC	2.29	2.49%
LOSS	Rostov - Rubin Kazan	2.20	3.37%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Cardiff - Wrexham	1	2.42	2.49%	17 Aug 21:00

Pick

1 @ 2.30

Kickoff

Ago 17, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.49% • n=1025

Start

Starts in 11h 24m

Updated

Updated 2h 9m ago