Model: TIPPSH

ASD Pineto Calcio vs Gubbio

PREDICTION

@ 2.36

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 14, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 2

StartStarted 17h 14m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is ASD Pineto Calcio. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ASD Pineto CalcioGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.107 | A: 0.192

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

38/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.33First seen

Current2.36Now

Max odds2.42Highest point

Min odds2.33Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ASD Pineto CalcioHOME

GubbioAWAY

LLDWW

Recent form

WWLLW

Avg goals scored

2.00

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.80

Shots on target for

5.40

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

4.00

Home splitL-D-W-W-L2.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-D-L0.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.36. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Cup (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.36

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to ASD Pineto Calcio's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -27.3% 7D: -4.1% 15D: 12.9% 30D: 9.2%

Model insight

ASD Pineto Calcio – Gubbio Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.36. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample185

Win Rate43.2%

Profit+1.05u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Torslanda IK - Dalstorps IF	2.35	2.49%
LOSS	Yarmouk - Al Salibikhaet SC	2.33	2.49%
WIN	North Star - Caboolture FC	2.29	2.49%
LOSS	Gimnastica de Torrelavega - Sestao River	2.40	2.49%
WIN	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	2.55	2.49%
WIN	Norrby IF - Orebro SK	2.26	3.15%
LOSS	FC Spartak Velka Bites - TJ Tatran Bohunice	2.25	3.15%
WIN	Auckland FC II - East Coast Bays	2.50	2.49%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Oldham - Port Vale	1	2.60	3.15%	15 Aug 13:30
Stoke - Swansea	1	2.43	3.15%	15 Aug 16:00
Barnet - Salford City	1	2.38	3.15%	15 Aug 16:00
Bedford Town - Darlington 1883	1	2.56	2.49%	15 Aug 16:00
Rostov - Rubin Kazan	1	2.20	3.37%	15 Aug 17:30
Cardiff - Wrexham	1	2.42	2.49%	17 Aug 21:00

Pick

1 @ 2.36

Kickoff

Ago 14, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.49% • n=1025

Start

Started 17h 14m ago

Updated

Updated 1d ago