Model: TipTromba35H
Hawkesbury City SC – Nepean FC
PREDICTION
1
@ 3.30
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 02, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultLOSS3 - 3
StartStarted 24d 13h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.87% · n=359
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 25d 14h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Hawkesbury City SC | Nepean FC |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-W-W-L-L | D-L-L-D-L |
| Avg goals scored | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| Home/Away form | D-W-L (home) | D-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.33 scored / 3.00 conceded | 1.33 scored / 3.33 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.00 for / 6.75 against | 3.00 for / 8.33 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 7.00 for / 8.00 against (home) | 1.50 for / 9.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Hawkesbury City SC has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.50First seen
Current3.44Now
Max odds3.44Highest point
Min odds2.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Hawkesbury City SC – Nepean FC Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.30. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.87% across 359 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample91
Win Rate27.5%
Profit-8.32u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Uberabinha U20 - Inter De Minas U20 | 3.25 | 3.56% |
| LOSS | Minas Boca U20 - Betim FC U20 | 3.40 | 3.56% |
| LOSS | KF Ferizaj - KF Dukagjini | 3.30 | 3.56% |
| LOSS | Central Coast United FC - Bonnyrigg White Eagles | 3.25 | 3.56% |
| LOSS | Hills United FC - Blacktown Spartans | 3.10 | 3.85% |
| LOSS | Chattanooga Red Wolves - Birmingham Legion FC | 3.20 | 3.58% |
| LOSS | Real Santa Cruz - Integracion Del Norte San Juan | 3.40 | 4.27% |
| WIN | America RJ - Madureira RJ | 3.40 | 4.27% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus U19 - Greece U19 | 1 | 3.25 | 3.56% | 27 May 09:00 |
| LePa - EIF Academy | 1 | 3.40 | 3.56% | 27 May 19:15 |
Pick
1 @ 3.30
Kickoff
Mag 02, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.87% • n=359
Start
Started 24d 13h ago
Updated
Updated 25d 14h ago