Model: TIPPSA
Heerenveen – Ajax
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.09
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 17, 2026 4:30 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 9d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.58% · n=409
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 9d 10h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Heerenveen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-L-W-W-L | D-L-D-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Home/Away form | D-W-W (home) | D-W-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.00 scored / 0.67 conceded | 1.67 scored / 0.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.20 for / 6.80 against | 5.60 for / 3.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 8.33 for / 5.67 against (home) | 6.00 for / 3.33 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Ajax has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.07First seen
Current2.06Now
Max odds2.15Highest point
Min odds2.01Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term
Model insight
Heerenveen – Ajax Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.58% across 409 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample75
Win Rate50.7%
Profit+4.49u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves - Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 2.26 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | Nottm Forest - Bournemouth | 2.02 | 1.21% |
| LOSS | Usti N Orlici - Slovan Liberec B | 2.03 | 1.21% |
| LOSS | PFC Oleksandria - FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 2.27 | 0.84% |
| WIN | Brondby - FC Copenhagen | 2.29 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | Qingdao West Coast - Beijing Guoan | 2.06 | 1.21% |
| LOSS | Puszcza Niepolomice - LKS Lodz | 2.15 | 0.58% |
| LOSS | Dynamo Makhachkala - Spartak Moscow | 2.18 | 0.58% |
Pick
2 @ 2.09
Kickoff
Mag 17, 2026 4:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.58% • n=409
Start
Started 9d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 9d 10h ago