Heerenveen – Ajax

Model: TIPPSA

Heerenveen vs Ajax

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.09
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 17, 2026 4:30 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 54d 16h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.58% · n=409
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 54d 18h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ajax. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ajax

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.07First seen
Current2.06Now
Max odds2.15Highest point
Min odds2.01Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

HeerenveenHOME
VS
AjaxAWAY
DLWWL
Recent form
DLDWW
Avg goals scored
0.80
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.20
0.80
Shots on target for
3.20
5.60
SoT conceded pressure
6.80
3.80
Home splitD-W-W2.00 scored / 0.67 conceded
Away splitD-W-W1.67 scored / 0.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.09. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.58% based on n=409 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Netherlands Eredivisie (nl). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.09
V2 BandLOWROI 0.58% · n=409
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Ajax's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 5.1% 7D: 13.5% 15D: 1.4% 30D: 1.0%
Model insight

Heerenveen – Ajax Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.58% across 409 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample85
Win Rate52.9%
Profit+9.28u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINRadomiak Radom - Hapoel Beer Sheva2.041.21%
LOSSFortaleza U20 - Vasco da Gama U202.111.21%
WINBentleigh Greens - Altona Magic2.290.84%
WINHolland Park Hawks - Redlands United2.031.21%
WINIFK Mariehamn - IF Gnistan2.031.21%
LOSSNunawading - Keilor Park2.250.84%
WINMyPa - PPJ2.061.76%
LOSSOdense BK II (W) - BSF (W)2.021.76%
Pick
2 @ 2.09
Kickoff
Mag 17, 2026 4:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.58% • n=409
Start
Started 54d 16h ago
Updated
Updated 54d 18h ago
Torna in alto